Energy - Weekly Refrac: Peace Deal Signed; IEA OMR; ET Expands Nederland; PAA Raises Capex; OPEC WOO

Research evidence excerpt

Energy - Weekly Refrac: Peace Deal Signed; IEA OMR; ET Expands Nederland; PAA Raises Capex; OPEC WOO

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report June 22, 2026

ENERGY

Energy - Weekly Refrac: Peace Deal

Signed; IEA OMR; ET Expands Nederland; Gabe Daoud

212-303-4193 PAA Raises Capex; OPEC WOO Gabe.Daoud@truist.com

Last week the US and Iran struck a peace deal after many weeks of missile strikes

and failed treaty attempts. As a result, crude saw a sharp decline with WTI falling to ~

Frankie DiGiovanna $77/bbl. Additionally, '26 crude demand is now expected to further decrease from the

212-326-3158 EIA's previous estimate (1.1 MMbpd vs 700 kbd prior). Within our coverage, Energy Francis.DiGiovanna@truist.com

Transfer expanded its capacity in their Nederland Export Terminal and Plains increased

its '26 capex outlook to $425MM ($350MM prior). Moreover, US oil rigs came in flat,

Eric Look breaking its 8 straight weeks of growth, while the reported natgas storage build of +73

212-303-4174 Bcf modestly undershoots expectations. Eric.Look@truist.com

61 Page Document US-Iran Update. Just when the market started pricing the four-month Strait of Hormuz

crisis as over, it isn’t quite over. Trump and Iran’s leadership signed a memorandum

of understanding at Versailles on June 17th – Tehran agreeing to reopen Hormuz,

Reasons for this report Washington lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports immediately – and crude

responded violently to ~$78/bbl by the 17th, an ~8.5% weekly decline as Kuwait

✓ Sector Update dropped its force majeure and the first tankers (including Saudi-flagged vessels) started

exiting the Gulf. That relief proved short-lived and in our view the go-forward will likely

prove just as volatile as pre-deal. On June 20th, Iran announced it would re-close the