Biotech/Pharma - IQVIA TRx Trends: Mounjaro TRx -3% w/w, Zepbound TRx -3% w/w

Research evidence excerpt

Biotech/Pharma - IQVIA TRx Trends: Mounjaro TRx -3% w/w, Zepbound TRx -3% w/w

Truist Securities

LLY: Valuation and Risks

Our $1,281 price target is derived from a 10-year DCF. We project ~$166B in revenues in the terminal year (2036E), and incorporate a

6% discount rate and a 0% terminal growth rate. The 6% discount rate employed is slightly below the 7-10% discount rate we typically

see for mature for revenue generating pharmaceutical companies. The 6% discount rate is warranted, in our view, given Lilly's revenue

generating potential and growth outlook are among the strongest among its peers.

Risks to our rating and price target include lower sales of Mounjaro, Zepbound, orforglipron, and Verzenio, and other products, greater-

than-expected pricing pressure in the US, Europe, and other areas, lower than expected sales of recent launches including Kisunla,

Omvoh and Ebglyss, unforeseen quality/manufacturing issues, and disappointing capital deployment.

BMY: Valuation and Risks

Our price target of $65 is based on our DCF model (with assumptions of: WACC 7%, terminal growth rate 0%). It also assumes that the

stock can trade at ~11x our 2025E EPS.

Risks to our rating and price target include lower sales of Revlimid, Eliquis, Opdivo, Camzyos, & Cobenfy; challenges associated with

commercializing newer products such as Sotyktu and Camzyos either due to lower-than-expected uptake or competitive pressure; greater

pricing pressure and disappointing capital deployment.

INCY: Valuation and Risks

Valuation: We use a DCF analysis to arrive at our price target of $103. We use a 9% discount rate, which we think is appropriate for a

lower-risk large cap company that is in the early stages of diversification. Given improved confidence in future pipeline expansion beyond