Poste Italiane: Italy's everything platform: Upgrade to Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

Poste Italiane: Italy's everything platform: Upgrade to Overweight

Barclays | Poste Italiane

dialogue with all Italian governments that were in charge over the last decade. TIM CEO often

mentions that certain law / requirements are penalizing for telco operators in Italy vs other

market players or foreign markets, and changing those would drive important value for TIM,

and therefore we think for the combined entity; Poste's role in these potential changes will be

crucial.

Stand-alone business plan: The focus will be on what we call Integrated Financial Services

and the ultimate goal will be building Italy's everything platform. On 24 July Poste will

present its "stand alone" business plan; only after the potential conclusion of the offer on TIM

(likely in Q4-26) would they present an update including TIM. In the end, if the TIM acquisition

proceeds, Poste will have three pillars: Telecom, IFS and Mail & Parcel (M&P). We think the focus

of the stand-alone business plan will be on IFS. In this report, we run various scenarios (not yet

fully included in our estimates) to show that by improving productivity in deposit or AUM

gathering, Poste can boost its revenues in a meaningful way (with upside potential of +4% on

EPS for every 1ppt market share gain in deposits, or +2% for every 1ppt market share gain on

wealth management, under simplified simulations, all else equal). How might this happen?

Poste clients have c.6.5m current accounts and 10m PostePay Evolution cards; the former

generate 6x higher revenues for Poste, due to higher cross selling. Should Poste transform

10%-30% of the PostePay Evolution cards into current accounts, we estimate revenues

could increase by 1% to 2% for the group (Figure 25), which is like saying deposits could grow by

+4% to +12%.