First Read: Poste Italiane SpA "2Q26 EBIT 3% ahead of expectations,..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Poste Italiane SpA "2Q26 EBIT 3% ahead of expectations,..."

E 1.93 1.93

Financial services revenues were down 10/2% QoQ/YoY but resilient if trading gains are 12/27E 2.02 1.98

12/28E 2.10 2.11

excluded, with NII progressing well on a quarterly basis, up 3% (and 1% YoY) and with

postal saving revenues in 1H26 well on track to achieve the c€1.8bn target expected for Adele Palama

the year. Insurance revenues were up 10% QoQ and 11% YoY thanks to larger CSM Analyst

release and with life insurance business reporting positive net inflows and improving adele.palama@ubs.com

lapse rate (6.6%) vs last year level (9.3%). PostePay service were up 2% QoQ and 8% +34-91-436 9023

YoY with strong growth in Payments (+6% QoQ and YoY), telco (2%/1% QoQ/YoY) Michael Werner

thanks to growing client base and increasing contribution from Energy business to total Analyst

divisional revenues (from 6% in 2Q25 to c9% in 2Q26). Operating costs incl. D&A were michael.werner@ubs.com

up 5% YoY with C/I in line with 2Q25 level (74% incl. D&A). +44-20-7568 8086

Q: Has the company's outlook/guidance changed?

A: Poste has confirmed its 2026E standalone guidance (adj EBIT guidance to €3.4bn vs

UBSe €3.47bn) and dividend payout of over 70%. PST announced the new 2027-30E

agreement with CDP on postal savings expecting €1.9bn average revenues p.a. from the

distribution of the postal savings (vs €1.8bn in 24-26E). On the 20th of July the offer

period on TIM started with period expected to close on the 11th of Sept (and with a

potential re-opening of the TO period on 21-25 September). Presentation of the

combined multi-year plan is expected to be announced in 1Q27.

Q: How would we expect investors to react?

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E