Poste Italiane: Solid trends in Q2, TIM offer in focus

Research evidence excerpt

Poste Italiane: Solid trends in Q2, TIM offer in focus

Equity Research

European Diversified Financials

3 July 2026

Poste Italiane

Solid trends in Q2, TIM offer in

focus

Q2 trends should be consistent with FY guidance, with a PST.MI/PST IM OVERWEIGHT

continuation of the solid Q1 developments in FS NII Unchanged

European Diversified

dynamics. Focus will mostly be on TIM deal and possible Financials POSITIVE

Unchanged

updates on its timetable and execution. Price Target EUR 35.20

Our view on Poste: We recently published a deep dive on Poste, looking at the potential for Price (03-Jul-26) EUR 29.13

value creation with TIM, and on a stand-alone base, particularly owing to the integrated Potential Upside/Downside +20.8%

financial services strategy. We still see a dividend / cash generation angle in the Poste Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

investment case, i.e. yield should remain an solid anchor even after the deal with TIM and

Poste's ability to generate cash might support further investments for growth at TIM. Poste Market Cap (EUR mn) 38046

should provide an update on the deal timetable (Figure 7) soon and, while we expect solid Q2 Shares Outstanding (mn) 1306.11

business update, we think that investor focus remains more on any comment on the TIM deal. Free Float (%) 34.68

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.3

Q2 results to be reported on 24th July: We expect Poste Group's Q2 net profit to be €506m (or Dividend Yield (%) 4.29

€562m excluding TIM contribution) and EBIT to be €840m (-3% YoY). In Figure 10 we summarise Return on Equity TTM (%) 20.33

that for FY-26, we expect a group EBIT of €3,475m, a group net profit of €2,654m (or €2,339m Current BVPS (EUR) 9.82

excluding TIM) and a DPS of €1.30. In the same table we also summarise our forecasts by Source: Bloomberg