Inside Freight - Strong to Quite Strong

Research evidence excerpt

Inside Freight - Strong to Quite Strong

ut remain 4% below Consensus. On our updated estimates, EXPD

is now trading at 22x our C26 EPS estimate and 25x our C27 EPS estimate. This compares with its 1-, 5- and 10-

year average forward P/Es of 23x, 21x and 21x. So valuation is largely in line with historical estimates and we retain

our Peer Perform rating.

MAERSK stock is up 6% YTD, meaningfully underperforming our WR Transport Index (+29%), but more modestly

underperforming the S&P 500 (+10%) and outperforming the other European Transports on average (+3%). We're

raising our 2Q EBITDA estimate by 6% to $1.85B and are now in line with Consensus. We're raising our C26 EBITDA

estimate by 24% to $7.8B and are now 18% above Consensus and above the high-end of management's $4.5B-

$7.0B guidance. We're also raising our C27 EBITDA estimate by 4% with a stronger exit rate, and are now 9% above

Consensus. On our updated estimates, MAERSK shares are now trading at 4.5x our C26 EBITDA estimate and 5.8x

our C27 EBITDA estimate. This compares to its 5-year and 10-year averages of 4x and 5x. Applying an unchanged

5.25x multiple to our slightly higher C27 EBITDA estimate, along with a stronger dollar and some incremental cash

flow relative to our last update, we're raising our year-end price target from DKK 13,000 to DKK 14,700. We retain

our Underperform.

MATX stock is up 55% YTD, meaningfully outperforming our WR Transport Index (+29%) and the S&P 500 (+10%).

We're raising our 2Q EPS estimate by 6% to $3.90 and are now 7% above Consensus. We're similarly raising our

C26 EPS estimate by 11% to $15.50 and are now 11% above Consensus. We're also raising our C27 EPS estimate

by 3% to $15.50 and are 2% above Consensus. On our upwardly revised estimates, MATX is now trading at 12x our