MAERSK - Higher C26 Guidance

Research evidence excerpt

MAERSK - Higher C26 Guidance

Airfreight & Surface Transportation

FLASH

FLASH: A.P. MOLLER – MAERSK A/S (MAERSK.B-DK) June 29, 2026

MAERSK - Higher C26 Guidance Rating:

Underperform ●Big Guidance Raise. On Monday after the close (CET), Maersk materially raised Price:

its C26 guidance range given the strong demand and spot rate environment. DKK15,940.00

From a demand perspective, Maersk now expects 4% industry volume growth, Price Target:

DKK14,700 up from its prior expectations of 2%-4%. And from a profitability standpoint,

% Upside:

Maersk now expects $8B-$10B of C26 EBITDA, up from its prior guidance of (7.8)%

$4.5B-$7B. MAERSK's guidance is above our recently revised EBITDA estimate

of $7.8B, and more materially above Consensus of $6.8B. That said, Maersk Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

Priced as of 06/26/26

also guided to <$1.5B of cash burn this year (vs. our estimate close to break-

even). So cash flow still has potential to remain pressured despite better

earnings as we expect a working capital headwind with higher rates.

●Delayed Reaction. While Maersk doesn't provide quarterly guidance, the

company has historically seen around a 1-quarter lag between when spot

rates rise and when Maersk sees the tailwind in its financials. So, we still see Jacob Lacks

relatively less upside in 2Q, where our estimate is in line with Consensus. But jlacks@wolferesearch.com (646) 845-0726

looking out to 3Q, we believe that Maersk should benefit from a combination of View MAERSK.B-DK Model

higher pricing and lower bunker costs. Our 3Q estimate of $2.5B is 22% above

Scott Group

Consensus, and MAERSK's guidance implies further upside to our model. sgroup@wolferesearch.com

●Duration Remains a Key Question. Maersk is clearly benefitting from the recent (646) 845-0721