FirstLook

Research evidence excerpt

FirstLook

Evercore ISI Focus

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Michael Binetti (212-326-2553)

NKE - In Line; Price Target $46.0 michael.binetti@evercoreisi.com

Near-Term Outlook Worsens, Potential for Another FY27 Reset; Downgrade to In Line

Nike's near-term outlook has significantly deteriorated, with a higher likelihood of additional revenue and EPS adjustments

needed. Recent checks indicate persistent challenges in wholesale channels and minimal innovation for the coming year,

signaling slower recovery from the ongoing turnaround effort.

Turnaround Progress Takes Longer: Despite previous resilience, Nike continues to face unexpected resets in wholesale

pricing and ongoing execution issues, particularly ahead of the World Cup. The lifestyle and family product segments are notably

underperforming, exacerbated by expansion into new channels, leading to increased inventory issues and cancellations.

EPS and Revenue Estimates Trimmed: Revised FY27 EPS is pegged at $1.65, down from $1.70, reflecting anticipated

revenue declines of approximately -2.7% in F1H27. Additionally, FY28 EPS is adjusted to $2.20. The brand must stabilize its

outlook to avoid a disruptive announcement at the upcoming Fall '26 analyst day.

Key Insights:

• Market Sentiment at a Low Point: Short-term investors are increasingly pessimistic, while mutual fund exposures to

NKE already reflect market index weightings, offering little room for increased positions.

• Valuation Challenges Persist: NKE's valuation is under pressure, currently trading at a 15-year low EV/Sales ratio.

Concerns over future margins add to the difficulty of justifying a premium valuation.

• Potential Positive Catalysts: Some performance categories remain strong, including Nike Run products and sales of

USA World Cup jerseys.