Peace Priced, Flows Unproven

Research evidence excerpt

Peace Priced, Flows Unproven

Energy | Global Energy

June 22, 2026

Stephen Richardson Peace Priced, Flows Unproven

212-446-5639 Risk premium compressed, normalization still has to earn it.

stephen.richardson@evercoreisi.com Newsflow last week was overwhelmingly bearish for crude, until the

Chris Baker, CFA physical pushed back. The midweek US-Iran MOU gave the market the

917-741-8669 reopening narrative it wanted. Hormuz crossings jumped to roughly 4-

chris.baker@evercoreisi.com

5 mmbpd, Iraq and Kuwait signaled production returns far faster than

Chai Zhao, CFA

previously indicated, and the potential return of Iranian barrels no 646-321-3097

chai.zhao@evercoreisi.com longer constrained by the same sanctions architecture added more

Jason Bandel supply uncertainty. Add the IEA’s first look at a 2027 balance showing

212-653-9044 a 4+ mmbpd surplus after normalization. The front of the curve lost

jason.bandel@evercoreisi.com much of the war premium, crude sold hard, and speculative positioning

Chris Lee moved toward extremes. The weekend reminder was that declared

212-653-9041 peace is not a logistics plan. Mines, renewed kinetic action, insurance

chris.lee@evercoreisi.com and routing uncertainty, and the still-undefined 60-day negotiation

window all argue the geopolitical risk premium should not disappear.

Table of Contents For Energy equities, the path to normalization and the new normal are

▪ Feature: (1) Reading Through the Mark-to- both key. It will take 4-6 weeks before the trajectory of flows is visible in

Market Noise: A 1Q26 Headwind Becomes a OECD inventories. In the interim, US gasoline cracks continue to rise,

2Q26 Tailwind. (2) EQNR – Capital Markets Day while product inventories should continue to draw. Medium term, the

Recap; Higher for Longer.