AP Moeller - Maersk A/S: Rate Upside Temporary, Downside Structural

Research evidence excerpt

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S: Rate Upside Temporary, Downside Structural

Idea

June 24, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAP Moeller - Maersk A/S | Europe Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analyst

Rate Upside Temporary, Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.comPeter Ajose-Adeogun +44 20 7425-4623

Peter.Ajose-Adeogun@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1618

Downside Structural Oscar P Smyth

Research Associate

What’s Changed Oscar.Smyth@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6567

Nicolas J Mora

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKb.CO) From To Equity Analyst

Price Target DKr 8,900.00 DKr 10,000.00 Nicolas.Mora@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-5376

Axel Stasse

Ocean rates were boosted in H1 by disruption and seasonality. EquityAxel.Stasse@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7425-2429

We expect a guidance upgrade but note this would be backward-

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKb.CO, MAERSKB DC)

looking. We see rates falling in 2H on increasing oversupply, Top Pick

orders and relative normalisation in routes. We explore supply Transport | Denmark

and demand trends, which continue to suggest supply growth Stock Rating Underweight

materially outpacing demand through to 2027. Stay IndustryPrice targetView DKr 10,000.00In-Line

Underweight (Top Pick). Shr price, close (Jun 22, 2026) DKr 15,900.00

52-Week Range DKr 18,865.00-

11,465.00

Key Takeaways MktNet debtcap, curr+ other(mn)adj (12/26e) (mn) DKr 242,067-

*EV (12/26e) (mn) DKr 242,067

Guidance upgrade = opportunity to sell into any strength: We think this would be

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

backward-looking, not a new mid-cycle base.

Sales / Revenue (US$ 53,988 56,406 55,651 57,968

Peak pulled forward: Strong imports and SCFI suggest cargo moved early, raising mn)**

EBITDA (US$ mn)** 9,572 7,722 6,125 6,695