Lifting price objective on shareholder returns upside; watch for buybacks

Research evidence excerpt

Lifting price objective on shareholder returns upside; watch for buybacks

19 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Utilities

Price Objective Change

TOKAI Holdings (3167)

Rating: Buy Price Objective ¥1,300 ¥1,450

Spotlight: See Figure 1 for earnings, ACT: More undervaluation, buyback announcement likely catalysts

capital efficiency, and shareholder return We revise our forecasts and price objective for Tokai Holdings, given the

metrics new medium-term plan (MTP) unveiled in May and the cash allocation

therein. Its shares have fallen since the announcement, but we remain

Share price (18 Jun) ¥1,104 upbeat on the firm’s capital allocation (higher priority on shareholder returns)Implied upside +31%

and profit growth targets (higher than peers’). Given this and a likely shareTSE Segment Prime

buyback announcement in 1H, we think the stock is currently at a good entry

Major indicators (E = Mizuho estimates) point. We change our target multiple, partly due to the sector-wide shareMarket capitalization (¥b) 152.18

Shares outstanding (m) 137.85 price correction since April, and raise our earnings and ROE forecasts. As

Potential share dilution (m) – a result, we lift our price objective by ¥150 to ¥1,450 and reiterate our BuyDaily turnover (thou, mo. avg.) 264.54

Foreign ownership (%, 9/25) 15.5 rating.

DPS(¥, 3/27E) 38.0

Dividend Yield(%, 3/27E) 3.4 KNOW: Expecting limited Middle East impact; likely to achieve MTP

Payout ratio(%, 3/27E) 43.9 targetsEquity ratio(%, 3/27E) 46.3

BPS(¥, 3/27E) 830.1 For FY3/27, we forecast higher profits mainly in the LP gas and information

PBR(x, 3/27E) 1.3 & communications businesses, but also roughly flat YoY earnings overallROE(%, 3/27E NP basis) 10.7

ROA(%, 3/27E RP basis) 8.7 due to one-off costs such as system upgrades.