Happy FriYay Insurance Weekly: State Farm Agent Pushback + Estimate Updates

Research evidence excerpt

Happy FriYay Insurance Weekly: State Farm Agent Pushback + Estimate Updates

June 19, 2026 | 09:22 ET~

Insurance Property & Casualty

Happy FriYay Insurance Weekly: State Farm Agent Insurance Property & Casualty

Pushback + Estimate Updates Michael Zaremski Analyst

michael.zaremski@bmo.com (646) 873-5043

Charlie Lederer, CPA Analyst

Bottom Line: charlie.lederer@bmo.com (347) 839-0835

In our weekly, we review key news items, stock price outperformers, and update Jack Matten, CFA VP Associate

industry KPIs for pricing and loss trends. jack.matten@bmo.com (212) 671-8000

Allstate (ALL, OP): Increasing 2026/27 estimates +3%/+1%, respectively, to Daniel Cohen Senior Associate

$30.40/$26.90, following ALL's better Auto PIF and CAT results in May. Auto organic daniel.cohen@bmo.com (646) 873-5139

policy count "PIF" grew +37bps sequentially, beating the implied consensus estimate of Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Corp.

~20bps and accelerating from +18bps last month (see Exhibit 1). CAT losses were light at

$289mm pre-tax vs. the implied consensus of ~$650mm. Insurance Property & Casualty

Baldwin (BWIN, Mkt): We reduce our Adj. EBITDA per share estimates for 2026/27

by -1%/-1% on slightly lower M&A revenue and buybacks. 600

Ryan Specialty (RYAN, Mkt): We're reversing course on buybacks, which we now 550

expect to run at no higher than $350mm. Continued below: 500

Key Points 450 Dec Jun Dec Jun

LHS: Price Source: FactSet

Key Weekly News Items (Continued on Page 2)

RYAN Continued: Given recent insider purchases and an estimated lack of material

buying activity from May 26 to June 2 (when it presented at an investor conference),

we're reducing our buybacks estimate to $350mm (from $500mm). This reduces our

Adj. EBITDA per share and Adj.