ALL: Light May Catastrophe Losses; What May Rate Filings Tell Us

Research evidence excerpt

ALL: Light May Catastrophe Losses; What May Rate Filings Tell Us

Nonlife Insurance

Personal Lines - Market Weight

ALLSTATE CORPORATION (ALL) June 18, 2026

ALL: Light May Catastrophe Losses; What May Rate Filings Rating:

Tell Us Outperform

Price:

$220.00

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

ALL's +0.4% m/m PIF growth is better than +0.2% April vs. March. This is not bad $261

% Upside:given ALL had pushed for 2.1% rate increases in May vs. the industry's -1% rate 18.6%

decreases on average. We take this as ALL's bifurcated approach to lean in on

View ALL Model

more growth in profitable states. View Comp Table

Company Information

ALL reported $289mn of pre-tax May CAT losses (much lower than our implied 52-Week Range $190 - $225

May CAT loss estimate of $795mn), bringing the QTD total to $1.16bn. We've now Market Cap. (MM) $57,060

lowered our 2Q26E CAT losses to $2.0bn from $2.4bn, leaving room for $795mn of Enterprise Value (MM) $66,983 Shares Out. (MM) 257.4

CAT losses in June. Avg. Value Traded (MM) $259.35

SI% of Float 3.5%

PGR’s $106mn in cat losses looks lower than ALL’s $289mn in absolute terms, yet Dividend Yield 1.9%

PGR has a much smaller homeowners premium base.

Price Performance

ALL reported sequential auto PIF increases of +0.4% (+96k policies) in May, slightly YTD LTM

8% 13%better than the +0.2% (+47k policies) sequential growth in April. On a y/y basis, auto ALL 9% 25% SPX

growth was +2.7% (+2.5% in April 2026). We are not changing our +0.3% q/q PIF WRPI (1)% (13)%

growth estimates (as April and May average 3%).

230May's auto PIF count of 25,901 was near our implied 25,912 estimate; ALL added

+96k auto policies in May vs +47k auto policies in April. 220

Adjusting ALL's PIF definition to align with PGR's (ALL reports vehicles in force, we 200