ALL: The End to Monthly VIF Disclosure

Research evidence excerpt

ALL: The End to Monthly VIF Disclosure

ice target of $243 is 10.0x our • Our upside scenario is $305 and • Our downside scenario is $195 and

2027 EPS estimate, which is around the assumes a higher P/E multiple (of 12.5x) assumes a near 10-year minimum price

5-year average. —this is 2x above the historical average, to earnings multiple of just around 8.0x.

• The price target is 1.7x our 2027 but still below peak levels • Deterioration of margins and uptick in

estimate book value. • Improvement in margins and inflection loss cost trends and auto tariffs having

• We believe the average multiple in loss cost trends. a significant impact on both growth and

is warranted as the company has • Higher-than-expected PIF growth and EPS

returned to target margins and full acceleration of new business in NY • Inability to get rates approved

pointed to returning to growth. We and NJ particularly in NY and NJ

are not assigning an above-average • Quicker Improvement in their RBC ratio • PIF decline / deterioration of retention

or peak multiple given margins likely and premium to surplus and loss of market share

deteriorating from here and growth has • Return to buying back a significant • Higher-than-expected catastrophe

yet to meaningfully accelerate. amount of its shares losses

Upcoming Catalysts Company Description

• Rate in troubled states: Any additional big rate increases, in NY ALL is the third-largest personal lines insurer in the U.S., with total

and NJ, where they pointed to needing more rate. 2025 net written premiums of $59.5 billion. Main segments include

• Q2 results: ALL will report Q2 results at the end of July. Property-Liability, its property and casualty business, which sells

auto and homeowners’ coverage, and Protection Services and

Health & Benefits.