Accor H1 preview: Raise our H1/FY 26 EBITDA by +3.6%/+2.1% resp; PT to €60.5

Research evidence excerpt

Accor H1 preview: Raise our H1/FY 26 EBITDA by +3.6%/+2.1% resp; PT to €60.5

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

23 June 2026

Accor Overweight

ACCP.PA, AC FP

H1 preview: Raise our H1/FY 26 EBITDA by +3.6%/ Price (22 Jun 26):€48.39

+2.1% resp; PT to €60.5 ▲Price Target (Dec-27):€60.50 Prior (Dec-27):€59.00

Ahead of the H1 26 results (due 30th July), we refine our estimates to reflect the

most recent trends, as well as feedback from discussions with the IR team. Overall, European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

we expect a reassuring update and are nudging our full-year estimates slightly Estelle Weingrod AC

higher. (44-20) 7742-8502

estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

We expect underlying RevPAR trends to remain relatively resilient, though J.P. Morgan Securities plc

softened by a full quarter of pressure in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the profit Karan Puri

protection programme appears to be tracking well (~€50-60m for FY 26), with (44-20) 7742-8342

karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

around half targeted in HA&O to offset the restaurant business in Dubai (Paris J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Society/Rikas). As a result, we now model €550m EBITDA in H1, implying flat Avni Garg

group margins y/y (previously we modelled -70bps y/y). (91-22) 6157-3431

avni.garg@jpmchase.com

We raise our FY 26 estimates accordingly (Table 2), as our previous forecasts did J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

not fully incorporate the profit protection programme. We now model FY 26

Specialist Sales contact details:EBITDA of €1,275m, sitting ~1% above BBG consensus. Our lower revenue

estimates reflect lower modelled reimbursed costs, which has no impact on Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

EBITDA. We separately keep our NUG assumptions unchanged (JPMe 4.0% in European Consumer

(44-20) 3493-3709