Travel & leisure (AO) | US Travel: Soft Patches, Solid RevPAR

Research evidence excerpt

Travel & leisure (AO) | US Travel: Soft Patches, Solid RevPAR

Connecting the dots

Release date: 25 June 2026

Julien Richer, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+33 1 70 39 74 98

Travel & leisure jricher@keplercheuvreux.com

Europe

US Travel: Soft Patches, Solid RevPAR

Key points:

According to the latest AAA data, 4 July travel is set to hit 72.2 million travellers (+0.5%), but growth is slowing compared to the

previous years. The lower-income consumers trade down while wealthier Americans keep Europe firmly on the summer agenda.

US RevPAR continued to outperform expectations, up 4% YTD (end-May) with a Costar/STR FY26E upgrade to +2.8% growth, while

FIFA World Cup benefits look localised, with Dallas ahead but several hosts underwhelming.

Read-across for our coverage: reassuring comments for Accor (Buy) and IHG (Reduce), supported by Paris RevPAR, Q2 US strength

so far and premium travellers' appetite for travel.

US travel is resilient.

US holiday demand remains resilient, albeit no longer accelerating. AAA (American Automobile Association) expects 72.2 million

Americans to travel over the 4 July holiday week, a new record, but growth is only +0.5% YOY (vs. +1.8% last year and +4.6% the

year before). According to the AAA report, 61.4m people would travel by car, 5.84m by domestic air, and 4.93m by

bus/train/cruise, with travellers offsetting higher costs via shorter trips, closer destinations and reduced discretionary spend. This

confirms our view that summer travel in Europe and the US is resilient, but uneven. Lower-income households are more likely to

have no travel plans, while middle- and higher-income households show stronger travel appetite.

For US outbound to Europe, the data is soft at the margin but not broken. Europe has become more popular with middle- and