Travel & leisure (AO) | Will the weather in Europe have an impact on summer demand?

Research evidence excerpt

Travel & leisure (AO) | Will the weather in Europe have an impact on summer demand?

Connecting the dots

Release date: 22 July 2026

Julien Richer, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+33 1 70 39 74 98

Travel & leisure jricher@keplercheuvreux.com

Europe

Will the weather in Europe have an impact on summer demand?

Key points:

Despite adverse heatwave and wildfire headlines, European hotel demand remains resilient: French June RevPAR rose 3.6%,

while Spanish July occupancy and forward bookings indicate continued year-on-year growth across key markets.

Extreme weather is rerouting rather than cancelling trips, benefiting air-conditioned, coastal and mountain hotels, while

restaurants and outdoor activities weaken, pressuring EBITDA through lower food-and-beverage sales and higher operating costs.

European indicators support modest summer RevPAR growth: arrivals and nights are rising, travel intentions remain strong,

September occupancy is ahead, favouring diversified asset-light operators over owners facing climate-related cost pressures.

Reassuring trading data despite weather headlines.

Even though the weather headlines have been bad since June in Europe, the available trading data remain reassuring. Ahead of

next week’s H1 releases, we see little evidence that the June heatwave in France (or the early-July wildfires in France and Spain)

has caused a material country-level shock to hotel room demand. French hotel RevPAR increased 3.6% year-on-year in June, with

occupancy up 1.2pts. Performance was particularly strong outside Paris, with regional RevPAR up 6.4%. On 20 July, the French

government (Serge Papin, Tourism minister) said summer bookings through the end of September were tracking 1–5% above last