Supply-Demand Model Update for Slower Traffic Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Supply-Demand Model Update for Slower Traffic Growth

Equity Research

Industry Update — June 18, 2026

Aerospace & Defense

Supply-Demand Model Update for Slower

Traffic Growth

Market Still Undersupplied Through 2030

Our Call David Strauss

Updating for slower 2% traffic growth in 2026. We still see aircraft market undersupplied Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

David.Strauss@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8052

on our delivery forecast through 2030.

Joshua Korn

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Forecast: Our model incorporates our delivery forecast increasing to 8% of installed Joshua.T.Korn@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-6421

base in 2030 along with traffic growth at 2% in 2026 before returning to 5% historical Ben Tomick

average beyond. This yields a slightly undersupplied market 2026-30 with narrowbodies Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

undersupplied and widebodies oversupplied at a moderating rate. Ben.Tomick@wellsfargo.com | 332-295-4224

Baseline: The global fleet on a seat basis is ~6% larger than pre-COVID while global traffic

is ~12% higher. The installed base of seats is slightly larger now as supply of new seats

over the last several years has outstripped retirements plus higher parked. We estimate

that the overall global aircraft market was fairly in balance pre-COVID with the NB market

modestly undersupplied while WBs were modestly oversupplied.

Variables: Our delivery forecast through 2030 includes narrowbody supply increasing

~45% to 8.5% of installed base (from 6%) and widebody supply increasing ~60% to 7%

(from 4%). From a demand perspective, we forecast narrowbody traffic increasing to

~50% above 2019 levels in 2030 and widebody ~25% above. Our model incorporates

retirements near 3%, higher from 2-2.5% recently.