Consumer – Weekly TikTok update; Shop data (VFC, EL, SN, CROX & more) + trends review (apparel, footwear, off-price)

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer – Weekly TikTok update; Shop data (VFC, EL, SN, CROX & more) + trends review (apparel, footwear, off-price)

kely reflects the company increasing its affiliate

marketing budget/expanding influencer gifting programs to drive more engagement on

TikTok. While we believe this is a good strategy to reach more consumers where they

are shopping, true organic traction still appears limited for Vans in general (outside of

very limited edition pearlized/collab releases that we have previously highlighted). See

Exhibit 2 on page 2 for more details.

A surge in Estée Lauder sales appears to be driven by a broad-based promotion

– Using the WoW delta in the total number of products sold on Estée Lauder’s TikTok

Shop multiplied by our weighted ASP estimate (based on our analysis of SKU level

data), we estimate the company’s weekly GMV grew over 400% WoW driven by a surge

in units sold (partially offset by a modest decline in ASPs). In our individual SKU data,

we have seen the greatest WoW acceleration in a few key SKUs that were discounted

25% off their previous price, which include its top 3 products on the platform (see

Exhibit 1 below). We note several other products on the brand’s TikTok Shop were also

incrementally marked-down this week.

Data available in Excel - For each shop that we are currently tracking across apparel,

footwear, and beauty, see pgs 3-4 for sales metrics over the past 2 weeks. In addition,

see pages 4-6 for TikTok (ByteDance, private) trends over the past ~90 days (number of

posts & views for individual hashtags) for many brands across the consumer universe.

Please reach out if you would like to see either dataset in Excel!

SEE PAGE 10 FOR REQUIRED DISCLOSURE INFORMATION