Exchanges - Preliminary 2027 ACA Rate Requests Show Mid-Teens % Rate Increases

Research evidence excerpt

Exchanges - Preliminary 2027 ACA Rate Requests Show Mid-Teens % Rate Increases

Equity Research

Flash Comment — June 17, 2026

Managed Care

Exchanges - Preliminary 2027 ACA Rate

Requests Show Mid-Teens % Rate Increases

Our Call Stephen Baxter, CFA

Preliminary rate filings in 10 exchange markets average to a ~16% increase. We see this Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Stephen.Baxter@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8041

as reasonable when considering plans could face further pressure on enrollment and

Mitchell Ostrovskymorbidity in 2027. Larger increases appear concentrated in high MLR states.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Mitchell.Ostrovsky@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-7243

Initial Thoughts James Lemmis

Preliminary Rate Requests. Preliminary 2027 individual-market rate filings from 10 James.Lemmis@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5336

state-based marketplaces - Washington, New York, Oregon, Maine, Connecticut, Illinois,

Massachusetts, Minnesota, DC and Vermont reflect a weighted-average rate increase

of 16.4%. This ranges from +6.5% (Vermont) to +22.4% (Washington). Overall, this

magnitude of rate increase appears reasonable when considering that plans could face

further pressure on enrollment and morbidity in 2027.

Context. The 2027 preliminary rate increases follow significant increases in 2026 as plans

priced to reflect the expiration of enhanced subsidies, margin pressure seen in 2025, and

typical cost trend. As noted above, we would expect plans to continue to price assuming

further pressure on the risk pool in 2027. To the extent that the increase to market

morbidity in 2026 is less than what was included in pricing, plans would likely be able to

make adjustments to 2027 rates in the coming months.

State Level Requests.