Rx Trends—May Scripts Trend Lower Y/Y with Business Day Headwind, T3M Growth More Stable

Research evidence excerpt

Rx Trends—May Scripts Trend Lower Y/Y with Business Day Headwind, T3M Growth More Stable

Equity Research

Industry Update — June 17, 2026

Managed Care

Rx Trends—May Scripts Trend Lower Y/Y with

Business Day Headwind, T3M Growth More

Stable

Our Call Stephen Baxter, CFA

Core Rx vol -0.7% y/y in May, with acute -1.1% and chronic -0.6%. This is below April Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Stephen.Baxter@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8041

+1.6%, but includes a 1 business day y/y h/w vs April flat y/y. T3M growth is more stable at

James Lemmis+1.2% y/y (clean y/y comp) vs +1.8% in Apr (+1 day).

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

James.Lemmis@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5336

We continue our monthly report examining prescription trends as the data provides Mitchell Ostrovsky

insight into broader utilization patterns across the healthcare system. Specifically, acute Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

prescriptions (~30% of total prescriptions) typically result from a provider encounter, Mitchell.Ostrovsky@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-7243

making these trends a useful barometer for broader utilization. We are also tracking

GLP-1 prescription trends given that the impact of these drugs on cost trend has been an

area of focus for the investment community.

Total Rx Trends. May's volume was down 0.9% y/y compared to +1.3% in Apr. May has

1 fewer biz day y/y vs. Apr flat y/y. On a trailing 3-month basis, volume is up +1.0% y/

y, compared to +1.3% in Apr. On a calendar day-adjusted basis, total scripts are down

4.8% m/m (vs. -2.6% in May 2025), with contributions from vaccine scripts (+14.0% m/

m vs. -16.5% in May 2025), Cold Cough and Flu Antivirals (-13.1% m/m vs. -14.5% in May

2025), and Paxlovid scripts (-39.2% m/m vs. -21.9% in May 2025).