Lundin Mining Corp.-LUMI provide financial outlook ahead of CMD-06/17/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Lundin Mining Corp.-LUMI provide financial outlook ahead of CMD-06/17/2026

Lundin Mining Corp.

NEWSFLASH | 17 JUN 2026

LUMI provide financial outlook ahead of CMD

Today, LUMI holds its CMD and released some figures prior to the event. Reaffirmed full-year production guidance of 310-

335kt copper and 134-149koz gold. At base case prices of USD 5.50/lb copper and USD 4,000/oz gold, 2026 revenue and

adjusted EBITDA are expected at USD 4,510m and USD 2,270m, though spot-price sensitivity analysis lifts these to USD

5,200m and USD 2,910m, some 7/10% and 11/13% above PASe and factset consensus estimates, respectively. Consolidated

copper cash costs remain guided at USD 1.90-2.10/lb, while Chapada's standalone cash cost was cut meaningfully to USD

0.75-0.95/lb (from USD 1.00–1.20/lb) on stronger gold by-product credits. Two medium-term growth catalysts were

highlighted: at Chapada, the Saúva expansion was formally sanctioned, with a new ball mill, lifting expansionary capex from

USD 50m to USD 85m. This project is targeted for completion by end-2027 and first ore from Saúva expected in early 2029,

adding 15kt copper and 45koz gold per year over four years, a roughly 30% and 75% production uplift at the asset. At

Caserones, leaching improvements have already brought cathode output to around 25kt/year, with a further 10-15kt

increment targeted to reach 40kt/year total capacity. Overall, we view LUMI’s CMD as a positive event. Buy, TP SEK 290.

Guidance and Financials

• 2026 production guidance unchanged: 310-335kt Cu, 134-149koz Au

• Base case 2026 revenue/adj. EBITDA: USD 4,510m/USD 2,270m (USD 5.50/lb Cu, USD 4,000/oz Au)

• Spot-price sensitivity: USD 5,200m/USD 2,910m - 7-10%/11-13% above PASe and consensus

• Consolidated Cu cash cost guidance unchanged: USD 1.90-2.10/lb