Takeaways from June Financials Conference

Research evidence excerpt

Takeaways from June Financials Conference

June 10, 2026 Takeaways from June Financials

Conference

Vincent Caintic, CFA

Most Incrementally Positive on BFH and UPST; Somewhat More Positive (332) 400-5061 vcaintic@btig.comFINANCIALS on AXP and More Cautious on SYF; Industry Trends Still Strong Morgan O'Donovan, CFA

(332) 400-5084 modonovan@btig.com

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: We came away from management presentations from

competitor conferences this week with a generally positive, but relatively unchanged,

view of Consumer Finance and Fintech. Companies reiterated their 2026 guidance

despite a macro that is very different now versus when guidance was initially providedINDUSTRY in early 2026.

Broadly, it does not appear that macro trends are having any significant impact on the

consumer, from any income cohort and across losses, spending and lending growth.

We are surprised that even rate expectations, such as the expectations swing fromREPORT 75bps of Fed Funds Rate cuts to now 25bps of Fed Rate hikes, didn't have much airtime

and appears to have no impact to guidance.

From the management commentaries, our view is changing for some companies. We

are making some adjustments to EPS on the below four companies, as we detail in

page 2 of this note. In summary:

■ Bread Financial (BFH, Buy, $105 PT): We are incrementally positive on both credit

trends and spending/lending continues to outperform our estimates, driving us to

improve our estimates on both metrics. We are particularly encouraged that Bread

believes it is "on the cusp of breaking 7%" loss rates. On a somewhat negative

note, it does appear that NIM expansion is facing a headwind from less CD repricing

benefit.

■ Upstart Holdings (UPST, Buy, $43 PT): We also met Upstart's CFO in-person