Swedbank "Q2 unlikely to be a catalyst for shares (that look fairly valued)."

Research evidence excerpt

Swedbank "Q2 unlikely to be a catalyst for shares (that look fairly valued)."

26E 27.91 27.92 0 26.94

12/27E 30.65 31.02 1 29.40

What has changed: Modest EPS estimate upgrades, PT to SEK 366

12/28E 31.70 31.79 0 30.77

Ahead of Q2 2026 results we make modest changes to our forecasts. We mark-to-

market for current FX rates, market performance during the quarter, updated interest Johan Ekblom, CFA

rate forecasts and guided regulatory charges. Overall we leave EPS forecasts for 2026 Analyst

johan.ekblom@ubs.comalmost unchanged while 2027 and 2028 increase by 1.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Net

+44-20-7568 3580

income estimate changes are slightly larger, as we have shifted some capital return from

share buybacks to dividends. Our price target rises from SEK 359 to SEK 366, reflecting Joshua Humphreys

changes in forecasts as well as recent changes to risk-free rates. Associate Analyst

joshua.humphreys@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0385

Valuation: Trading at 11.3x 2027E EPS and 2.0x TNAV for a 17% ROTE

We reiterate our Neutral rating on Swedbank and view shares as trading close to fair

value. We believe that the premium P/E valuation (vs. history) is warranted given reduced

risk from AML investigations and current/forecast profitability, but we see modest re-

rating potential from current levels. We do not expect Q2 results to be a catalyst for the

shares.

Highlights (SKrm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 73,050 73,984 68,484 71,774 76,285 78,063 80,484 83,557

Pre-tax profit 43,618 44,221 41,255 39,143 44,681 45,528 46,866 48,977

Net earnings (reported) 34,146 34,901 32,759 30,533 34,929 35,574 36,616 38,262

Net earnings (UBS) 34,913 35,262 31,655 31,547 34,929 35,574 36,616 38,262

Tier 1 ratio % 20.6 21.8 19.4 18.6 18.3 18.2 18.3 18.4