American Express: Pre-2Q26 Catchup and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

American Express: Pre-2Q26 Catchup and Model Update

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy American Express 17 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States AXP.N AXP US Price target (USD) 450.00 Price at 16 Jun 26 340.74

52-week range 384.89 – 292.27

Financial

Consumer Finance Valuation & Risks

Pre-2Q26 Catchup and Model Update

Mark DeVries

We caught up with AmEx ahead of 2Q26 earnings to discuss any recent trends in Research Analyst

+1-212-250-4081 their business intra-quarter. Below are our takeaways and estimate updates into

the quarter. Michael Dunlevy, CFA

Research Associate

+1-212-250-9888

Call & Intra-quarter Takeaways

• Q2-to-date billing growth is tracking ahead of Q1, which was the

strongest quarter in three years. Demand for new cards continues to be

very strong.

• Partner-funded value (statement credits, etc.) has grown to over $3.5B

annually, reinforcing the card-fee growth flywheel and attracting

incremental partners.

• Amazon and Lowe's portfolio transfers (expected by end of 2026) will

create a low-single-digit drag on commercial spend and NII growth, but

management confirmed no EPS impact and reiterated this is baked into

guidance.

• Agentic commerce / AI positioning flagged as a structural long-term

opportunity — the closed-loop network gives AXP a data advantage for

fraud detection and AI-driven decisioning that open-loop peers cannot

easily replicate.

• Credit metrics remain stable (DQs 1.2% and 1.3% in April/May, NCOs

2.1% and 2.0%) in the monthly data, although be mindful of the

reclassification that took place in March which would throw off

comparisons to their previous reporting.

• Younger cohort credit quality outperforming — Millennials and Gen Z