Staples Retail: Food Inflation Narrative Persists Food w/ Further PPI Acceleration

Research evidence excerpt

Staples Retail: Food Inflation Narrative Persists Food w/ Further PPI Acceleration

Equity Research

Industry Update — June 11, 2026

Food & Staples Retail/Food Service

Staples Retail: Food Inflation Narrative Persists

Food w/ Further PPI Acceleration

Our Call Edward Kelly, CFA

Food PPI accelerated for a fourth straight month. Report provides further evidence of a Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Edward.J.Kelly@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5304

firming price backdrop; unfortunately talk on price investment could disrupt this catalyst

John Parkefor staples retail. Food service better positioned.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

John.Parke@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-3327

Food PPI Continues to Accelerate, but Momentum Moderated: Finished Consumer Adam Gregorio

Food PPI rose ~30bps seq to +2.2% y/y in May (vs. +60–140bps in prior 3 months), driven Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

by a ~450bp spike in volatile Crude category (esp. Fresh Produce), while Processed Foods Adam.Gregorio@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8117

decelerated ~20bps. The 2y stack accelerated 85bps to +6.0%. On an m/m basis, Food PPI

increased 40bps, led by Crude (~260bps) and modest gains in Processed (~20bps).

CPI–PPI Gap Steady; Pricing Tailwinds Build Amid Rising Competitive Risk: The y/

y gap between Processed Foods PPI and FAH CPI remained stable on both y/y and 2y

stack bases, with Processed moderating to its lowest since Apr’25. While the case for

firmer pricing into year-end is building, recent commentary across staples retail points

to incremental price investment—keeping us cautious on the re-inflation trade. Prefer

idiosyncratic, self-help stories in retail and continue to favor food service.

Exhibit 1 - PPI: Finished Consumer Foods