Boxboard Update: Sonoco Announces URB Price Increase; Positive for SON, GEF

Research evidence excerpt

Boxboard Update: Sonoco Announces URB Price Increase; Positive for SON, GEF

Truist Securities

GEF: Valuation and Risks

Valuation: Our $78 price target is based on an equal-weight of our: 1) CY27E EPS forecast with a P/E multiple of 10-11x, 2) CY27E

EBITDA forecast with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8-9x, and 3) CY27E FCF forecast with a yield of 11-12%. Our multiples are at or higher than

the average multiples GEF has historically achieved due to an improving mix and free cash flow, portfolio streamlining, and low leverage.

Upside risks to our rating and price target include: 1) improving supply/demand conditions and trade trends in paper, packaging, and

industrial end-markets; 2) lower input cost volatility around fiber, metals, resins, labor, energy, freight, and others; 3) the company’s ability

to effectively manage price and input costs; 4) greater synergy realization from acquisitions; and 5) positive capital return trends.

Downside risks to our rating and price target include: 1) deteriorating supply/demand conditions and trade trends in paper, packaging,

and industrial end-markets; 2) greater input cost volatility around fiber, metals, resins, labor, energy, freight, and others; 3) the company’s

ability to effectively manage price and input costs; 4) weaker-than-anticipated capital return trends; 5) international market exposure; 6)

unfavorable capital structure initiatives.

SON: Valuation and Risks

Valuation: Our $65 price target is based on an equal-weight of our: 1) CY27E EPS forecast with a P/E multiple of 9-10x, 2) CY27E

EBITDA forecast with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7-8x, and 3) CY27E FCF forecast with a yield of 8-9%. Our multiples are generally in-