Boxboard Update: Nippon Unlikely to Help SBS Folding Carton S/D Balance

Research evidence excerpt

Boxboard Update: Nippon Unlikely to Help SBS Folding Carton S/D Balance

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report June 8, 2026

INDUSTRIALS: Paper

Boxboard Update: Nippon Unlikely to Help

SBS Folding Carton S/D Balance Michael Roxland We had a chance to check in with our sources in/around boxboard regarding the closure

212-326-4839

Michael.Roxland@truist.com of the Nippon Dynawave (private) facility in Longview, WA. Overall, we believe the

mill outage is unlikely to notably improve supply/demand conditions in SBS folding

carton and should not meaningfully impact producers Graphic Packaging (GPK, Hold) Niccolo Piccini and Smurfit Westrock (SW, Buy), but could marginally benefit Clearwater Paper (CLW, 212-303-4140

Nico.Piccini@truist.com Hold).

4 Page Document We had a chance to check in with our sources in/around boxboard regarding the closure

of the Nippon Dynawave facility in Longview, WA. Recall that the mill has not been

operational since May 26 due to an implosion of a chemical tank, which contained

Reasons for this report white liquor, a substance primarily composed of sodium hydroxide and sodium sulfide in

water, and used to break the bonds between the lignin and cellulose to turn wood chips

✓ Sector Update into pulp as part of the paper making process (link). Since the closure, the shares of both

CLW and GPK have outperformed the market (CLW +7.2%, GPK +2.4%, S&P -1.8%)

on hopes that this closure, if permanent, would result in more balanced SBS folding

carton supply/demand. While GPK does not produce much SBS folding carton, there

has been increased risk that price weakness in SBS folding carton could bleed into other

grades including CRB and CUK, particularly given increasing substrate shifting (SW