Marking Time Before the Next Turn

Research evidence excerpt

Marking Time Before the Next Turn

returning capital to shareholders—primarily through buybacks—while continuing to

MUR

reduce debt toward a sub-$1B target. Recent operational challenges and a leadership transition have led to a more measured

In Line

outlook, centered on modest production growth and disciplined capital. While execution risk remains, MUR’s diversified asset

base and emerging international program position it well for continued long-term value creation and strategic flexibility.

OXY remains a high beta crude lever with a long duration Lower 48 position and a diversified cash flow mix across the

Permian, Gulf of Mexico, and Oman, now streamlined after the sale of OxyChem. Operationally, results and guidance

Occidental

reinforce capital discipline through lower unit costs and efficient maintenance mode development. Our less constructive view

Petroleum

here remains centered on the capital structure which dominates the equity story. Preferred redemption and balance sheet

OXY

priorities continue to absorb free cash, limiting buybacks and keeping shareholder returns behind peers. OxyChem sale

Underperform

proceeds help accelerate deleveraging, but until net debt and preferred obligations are clearly de risked, equity upside

remains capped despite strong commodity torque.

OVV continues to execute strongly across the reshaped portfolio, first integrating the 2023 Permian acquisitions with

impressive well results and efficiency gains, and then driving similar outperformance from the Montney assets acquired from

Ovintiv Paramount (POU). The recently announced NuVista (NVA) acquisition further consolidates OVV’s position in the Montney,

OVV enhancing scale, capital efficiency, and free cash flow durability, with elevated debt levels largely de-risked by the Anadarko