Global Copper: US Copper Tariffs: policy paths and FCX exposure

Research evidence excerpt

Global Copper: US Copper Tariffs: policy paths and FCX exposure

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

North America 10 June 2026

Global Global Copper

Market Update

Industrials

Metals & Mining

US Copper Tariffs: policy paths and FCX

exposure

Liam Fitzpatrick

US copper tariffs in focus Research Analyst

Alongside copper's increasing correlation with AI-linked equities, US tariff policy is +44-20-754-13233

emerging as a key driver of the near-term price outlook. Copper is recognised by US

Bastian Synagowitz

policymakers as a strategic metal, while global excess copper refining capacity - Research Analyst

primarily in China - is viewed as a threat to domestic copper production and national +41-44-227-3377

security. On 1 August 2025, the US introduced tariffs on semi-finished copper

Cody Hayden

products. However, the unexpected exclusion of refined copper triggered a

Research Analyst

collapse in the COMEX premium (Fig 1) and a sharp sell-off in copper equities. The

+44-20-754-13230

President's Proclamation stated that by June 30 2026, the Commerce Secretary

shall provide an update on domestic copper markets, after which a decision will be

Companies featured

made on whether tariffs on refined copper are warranted. As a result, investor focus

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N),USD64.25 Buy

on copper tariffs has increased in recent weeks, and we look at three possible policy

Source: Deutsche Bank

scenarios:

1. a phased introduction of tariffs, similar to the Commerce Secretary's

recommendations (15% starting in 2027 and 30% starting in 2028). This is

the market's central case and would be positive for copper near term,

supporting continued imports through H2'26. A variant of this scenario

could be a delay to any final decision or a more gradual phasing.

2.