Poste Italiane and Telecom Italia: A Transformational Deal With Double-Digit Upside Potential

Research evidence excerpt

Poste Italiane and Telecom Italia: A Transformational Deal With Double-Digit Upside Potential

10 June 2026

Multi-Sector Holdings

Poste Italiane and Telecom Italia

Executive Summary

PST is making a significant strategic move with a voluntary tender offer for TIM,

aiming to combine two leading incumbents in Italy. While this combination would

create an entity with strong competitive positioning, investors seek clarity on the

industrial rationale.

Standalone, post the re-rating, we see TIM as fairly valued and we downgraded our

recommendation to Hold in February (TP EUR 0.64) - see note. Although we see

potential benefits from market consolidation, we think TIM is more likely to be a

passive rather than active beneficiary and, for the ex-Brazil valuation to look

attractive, investors are likely to increasingly need to look at long-term multiples.

We see TIM as fairly valued and we employ our target price of EUR 0.64/share in our

estimation of the PST valuation under a deal scenario, with incremental synergies.

By contrast, we see PST as worth EUR 30.4 under a successful deal scenario which,

based on the offered cash/PST share mix, we estimate would value TIM at EUR 0.83/

share. We update our PST target price to EUR 29.1/share (from EUR 21 stand-

alone).

We incorporate our positive view on the transaction's potential, which we estimate

can achieve EUR 770mn of synergies in 2029 (vs PST's target of EUR 700mn): our

new TP of EUR 29.1 (from a stand-alone value of EUR 21) assumes a relatively high

(85%) probability of the deal successfully closing. We assume the likelihood of PST

successfully completing the offer for TIM is relatively high. Firstly, we note that PST

already owns 20% of TIM: reaching the relevant threshold of 67% implies an