AIA Group Ltd: MCV Concerns Overstated, Valuation Appealing

Research evidence excerpt

AIA Group Ltd: MCV Concerns Overstated, Valuation Appealing

Update

June 10, 2026 10:25 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MAIA Group Ltd | Asia Pacific Richard Xu, CFA

Equity Analyst

MCV Concerns Overstated, Richard.Xu@morganstanley.comRick Zhao +852 2848-6729

Rick.Zhao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7033

Valuation Appealing Chenqian Liu

Research Associate

Chenqian.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0359

Key Takeaways

AIA’s share price fell ~13% over the past week vs. HSI -5%, mainly on concerns

about a regulatory clampdown on MCV business, while we see limited impact.

MCV-related business has operated broadly as usual over the past 3 weeks.

Sales, bank account setup, and money transfers appear unaffected. AIA Group Ltd (1299.HK, 1299 HK)

Hong Kong/China Insurance | Hong Kong

Regulatory focus does not appear to target MCV. A strong RMB and capital

Stock Rating Overweight

account opening support our view. HKIA maintains communication with Chinese Industry View Attractive

regulators. Price target HK$109.00

Up/downside to price target (%) 55

Even assuming no new MCV from 2H26 onward, the impact on EV, CSM and Shr price, close (Jun 10, 2026) HK$70.25

52-Week Range HK$92.15-66.55

OPAT could be manageable at a 2–6% decline in FY27–28E, while we do not Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 10,564

expect this to occur. Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$94,740

Avg daily trading value (mn) US$300

As a result, we believe market concerns may be overstated. AIA’s fundamentals Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

remain solid and valuation appealing; maintain OW. EPS (US$)** 0.68 0.78 0.87 1.02

Prior EPS (US$)** - - - -

ModelWare net inc (US 7,136 7,992 8,958 10,463

AIA completed its US$1.7bn buyback (~1.6% of total shares) on Mon, June 8, 2026. $ mn)

The next round is, in principle, expected in 2027.