AIA Group Ltd (1299) Top three FAQs and investor feedback: MCV overhang priced in; the debate now shifts to growth

Research evidence excerpt

AIA Group Ltd (1299) Top three FAQs and investor feedback: MCV overhang priced in; the debate now shifts to growth

Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 June 2026

Overweight

AIA Group Ltd (1299) 1299.HK, 1299 HK

Price (15 Jun 26): HK$76.50

Top three FAQs and investor feedback: MCV

overhang priced in; the debate now shifts to growth Price Target (Dec-26): HK$112.00

AIA’s share price has been volatile over the past two weeks, moving -7.5% Hong Kong

(vs. HSI: -2.2%) following market sentiment weight on cross-border Insurance

regulation tightening (link). Investor feedback suggests the pullback has AC MW Kim

triggered a fresh reassessment of risk/reward, with AIA now trading at a 1.1x (852) 2800-8517

FY27E P/EV (vs. the historical average/trough: 1.7x/1.0x). MCV risk may mw.kim@jpmorgan.com

remain an overhang, but the current 1.1x forward P/EV appears to price in J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

limited value for future growth, in our view. This looks too conservative to us, Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

as MCV contributes only 21% of Group NBV, while the ex-MCV business, Dan Wang

around 80% of the group, remains broadly on track. The key debate is no (86-21) 6106-6349

longer whether MCV risk exists, but whether the market is over-discounting dan.wang@jpmorgan.com

AIA’s broader growth and cash generation profile. We expect the ex-MCV SAC Registration Number: S1730524080001

J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited

franchise to deliver double-digit financial growth, supported by diversified

Julia Kimmarket exposure and resilient demand across key Asian life markets. A

(852) 2800-8540

double-digit financial print in 1H26, together with greater regulatory clarity julia.c.kim@jpmorgan.com

during August reporting, could act as near-term catalysts.