AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) Hold: Wait-and-see or buy-the-dip? Four factors to watch

Research evidence excerpt

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) Hold: Wait-and-see or buy-the-dip? Four factors to watch

g account opening in Shanghai (SCMP, 3 June). 94.00

2) Further insurance regulation may emerge. HKSAR Financial Secretary Paul 78.50

Chan on 10 June commented that “previously we have observed substantial capital 63.00

flow coming to Hong Kong, investing in insurance products, most welcomed … but 06/25 12/25 06/26

some of them may not [be] via proper means. Now they put it back to [the] proper Target price: 81.00 High: 90.95 Low: 66.75 Current: 70.25

channel”. We see potential that additional measures regarding MCV insurance sales Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

might be rolled out (see AIA – Fund flow regulations impact sentiment, 5 June 2026).

Gary Lam*, CFA

3) Risks of P/EV multiple compression. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the Head of Greater China Financials Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

current share price of HKD70.25 implies c4.5% EV downside to our model, and a gary.lam@hsbc.com.hk

target P/EV of 1.2x. We believe EV downside risk is largely priced in. However, the +852 2996 6926

key risk to fair value under a P/EV framework is the multiple. Every 0.1x decline in Allen Chen*, CFA

the P/EV multiple could imply c7-8% downside to fair value. We present a two- Analyst, China Financials The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

dimensional sensitivity analysis on page 3 (exhibits 2-3). allen.m.chen@hsbc.com.hk

+852 3941 7203

4) Limited near-term buyback support. We estimate the USD1.7bn share buyback Joanna Chan*, CFA

programme announced in March has been fully executed. AIA increased its daily Analyst, Asia Financials and Fintech

buyback pace to >HKD570m from 26 May to 8 June 2026 (vs cHKD220m per day joanna.ct.chan@hsbc.com.hk