GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Lundin Mining Corp.: 2026 CMD Preview: Incremental, not Transformational
Research evidence excerpt
Lundin Mining Corp.: 2026 CMD Preview: Incremental, not Transformational
IdeaMExhibit 3: Los Helados offers longer-dated growth optionality for Caserones
Source: Company presentation
#3 Candelaria & Chapada - Expecting incremental updates
We expect an update on near-term, low-capital-intensity brownfield growth options. At
Candelaria, the scaled-back underground expansion plan targets a step-up from 14ktpd to
~22ktpd throughput from higher-grade underground ore by 2030+, while the Franco-
Nevada stream step-down from 1H27 (MSe) provides a annualised FCF post-tax uplift of
US$75mn on spot. At Chapada, the gold-rich Saúva deposit remains the key priority with a
potential sanctioning in 2H26 and scope to add 15-20ktpa of copper and 32kozpa of gold
in Phase 1, with further upside as the mine plan is optimised and Phase 2 comes through.
Together, these projects underpin LUN’s medium-term ambition to add ~10% of copper
and ~40% of gold output over the coming years, before accounting for Vicuña's outsized
growth opportunity. Moreover, we expect management to provide an update on further
optimising sustaining capex across the operating assets.
#4 Further asset optimisation initiatives on the cards?
What is the Full Potential initiative? Lundin Mining’s Full Potential initiative is a
company-wide operational excellence program focused on delivering sustainable cost
reductions, productivity gains and process improvements across its core producing assets:
Candelaria, Caserones and Chapada. The program targets better mine sequencing, lower
strip ratios, higher throughput, improved recoveries and selective insourcing, with early
benefits already visible in lower unit costs at Candelaria and Caserones and stronger cost
performance at Chapada.
Morgan Stanley Research 7
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