Lundin Mining Compelling long-term growth, but approaching Vicuña FID, copper headwinds, & 2025 re-rating skew risks to the downside; stay Underweight

Research evidence excerpt

Lundin Mining Compelling long-term growth, but approaching Vicuña FID, copper headwinds, & 2025 re-rating skew risks to the downside; stay Underweight

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

11 June 2026

Lundin Mining

Compelling long-term growth, but approaching Vicuña

FID, copper headwinds, & 2025 re-rating skew risks to

the downside; stay Underweight

Lundin Mining will hold its Capital Markets Day next Wednesday, 17 June, which European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACwill showcase the group’s significant long-term growth strategy in Argentina and Patrick Jones

Chile. Although LUN stands out for its strong operational performance and its (44-20) 7742-5964

recent Mar’26 site visit (link) demonstrated that work at the group’s flagship patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

Vicuña project is well advanced, we remain more cautious near-term on LUN J.P. Morgan Securities plc

shares. Diminishing geopolitical risk in Argentina (Milei’s 2023 & 2025 election Dominic O'Kane

victories) and BHP’s entry both helped de-risk Vicuña helped drive a re-rating for (44-20) 7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

LUN from ~5x to ~10x spot attributable EV/EBITDA currently. However, with J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Mgmt targeting FID by YE’26, commencing the development phase for Vicuña

Rosie Jia

raises greater near-term execution risks for the group, particularly regarding the (44-20) 3493-7448

overall capex budget (last guidance: US$18bn), & phase 1 first output (target: rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

2030). Also, we still see near-term macro headwinds for copper (link), as JPM J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Commodities Research forecasts copper to finish 2026 at $12,500/t (-8% downside Varun Bhattad

vs spot). Into next week’s CMD, we see potential for Mgmt to modestly increase (91-22) 6157-5027