Economics Week Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Economics Week Ahead

Economics

Weekly — June 5, 2026

U.S. inflation is showing renewed upward pressure, with our expectations for May CPI Economist(s)

to rise 0.5% and the year-over-year rate pushing to 4.2%, largely driven by an 8% surge

in energy goods and firmer food prices. We believe core inflation will be 0.2% as goods Tom Porcelli

stabilize and services stay broadly steady outside of pockets like airfares. In the Eurozone, Chief Economist | Wells Fargo Economics

inflation is broadening more decisively, with high three-month annualized rates and Tom.Porcelli@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-6422

firming pressures across both services and goods likely prompting the ECB to begin a Tim Quinlan

tightening cycle, starting with a 25bp hike and maintaining a hawkish bias. In Canada, the Senior Economist | Wells Fargo Economics

Bank of Canada is likely to hold rates at 2.25% in the near term, balancing softer recent Tim.Quinlan@wellsfargo.com | 704-410-3283

growth and core inflation against still supportive commodity dynamics and tight labor Sarah House

supply, leaving the policy path tilted toward gradual future hikes. In Brazil, inflation is Senior Economist | Wells Fargo Economics Sarah.House@wellsfargo.com | 704-410-3282

moving further above target, with our expectations for headline nearing 4.7% as price

Aroop Chatterjeepressures shift from energy toward food, complicating the outlook and raising the

International Economist | Wells Fargo Economics

likelihood that easing gives way to a pause as inflation risks intensify. Aroop.Chatterjee@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8819

United States: Charlie Dougherty

Senior Economist | Wells Fargo Economics

• CPI (Wednesday) Charles.Dougherty@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8984

Michael PuglieseG10 Economies: