American Express Company: Commercial deep-dive: SME scale, fintech pressure and the 2026 product test

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American Express Company: Commercial deep-dive: SME scale, fintech pressure and the 2026 product test

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American Express Company

Commercial deep-dive: SME scale, fintech

pressure and the 2026 product test

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 387.00 USD | Price: 310.97 USD

Scale is the starting edge 04 June 2026

The Commercial Services segment is too large to ignore, in our view: it generated $542B Equity

of billed business in 2025 (31% of AXP billings) and 23% of overall revenue. The segment

houses what we view as Amex’s most economically distinctive franchise: U.S. small and Mihir Bhatia

medium enterprises (SME). SMEs are ~82% of CS billings; AXP is in the midst of “the Research Analyst

BofAS

most significant year for commercial product expansion in company history.” In this note +1 415 436 3553

we focus on products, competitive landscape, 2026 roadmap, and key investor debates. mihir.bhatia@bofa.com

Matthew C. O'Neill

The moat is high-spending ResearchBofAS Analyst

We estimate AXP has 51% small-business credit purchase-volume share, more than 3x +1 646 855 1681 matthew.c.oneill@bofa.com

its nearest competitor. AXP’s commercial franchise is built on high-spend relationships, Caroline Latta

the average CS cardmember spends 1.7x more than the average consumer cardmember. Research Analyst

2026 product wave targets fintech +1caroline.latta@bofa.com646 855 0564

Graphite, Corporate Cash Back, virtual-card expansion, Center/Hyper expense software Natalie Howe

and AI spend tools address the two areas where Ramp/Brex have been most relevant: Research Analyst BofAS

uncapped cash-back and workflow automation. Center is the hinge. If AXP can move +1 415 436 1103

from card-only economics into expense/AP software, it should improve retention and Lawrence Aydlett