Monte dei Paschi: All roads lead to Siena – top pick

Research evidence excerpt

Monte dei Paschi: All roads lead to Siena – top pick

Key catalysts ahead in focus

Exhibit 1: Recap of recent events affecting Monte Paschi and key dates ahead

Summary of recent events and upcoming catalysts related to Monte Paschi

Date Event Implications

The original offer considers 23 Monte Paschi shares for every 10 from Mediobanca, totalling €13.3bn and implying a premium

Monte dei Paschi launches an all-share

24th January 2025 of c.5%, Monte Paschi targets €700m of revenue and cost synergies, acceleration of DTA reversals and add product factories as

offer for Mediobanca

the core rationale of the bid. Delfin and Caltagirone were among key cross-shareholders.

Monte Paschi bid for Mediobanca offer

8th September Monte Paschi crosses the critical 50% threshold allowing them effective control of Mediobanca. One week earlier, Monte Paschi

period ends, BMPS secures c.62% of

2025 had added €0.90/share to the offer (a c.5% bump), valuing Mediobanca at c.€13.5bn.

Mediobanca’s share capital

Monte Paschi secures c.86% of

22nd September Monte Paschi increases its shareholding in Mediobanca to c.86%, leaving only a small non-controlling interest. This follows the

Mediobanca’s share capital at the end

2025 resignation of Alberto Nagel, Mediobanca’s CEO on the 18th of September.

of the reopening period

Monte Paschi presents their new strategic business plan. The bank targets c.€3.3bn profit by 2028e and c. €3.7bn profit by

27th February Monte Paschi presents new business

2030e. However, Monte Paschi’s share price underperforms on the day, on uncertainty around DPS in 2026 and lack of clarity on

2026 plan, incorporating Mediobanca

the terms of the Mediobanca’s minority buyout which adds to the share count uncertainty.