Commerzbank: UCG/CBK: To bump or not to bump?

Research evidence excerpt

Commerzbank: UCG/CBK: To bump or not to bump?

Equity Research

European Banks

29 May 2026

Commerzbank

UCG/CBK: To bump or not to

bump?

We review the pros and cons of a potential higher UCG offer CBKG.DE/CBK GY OVERWEIGHT

on CBK. We maintain our OW rating (PT €42) and see a Unchanged

favourable risk/reward for CBK shareholders, with either European Banks UnchangedPOSITIVE

upside from a bumped bid or from stand-alone execution. Price Target EUR 42.00

Unchanged

Several elements speak in favour of a bump. First, the share price evolution: UCG share price Price (27-May-26) EUR 36.70

recently touched nearly €75 (on 25 May) and we calculate (Fig 5) that with a 10% bump and UCG Potential Upside/Downside +14.4%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

share price near €80 (if that happens), the implied CBK offer price would get near the median TP

on the Street (of €42), which would potentially be a more appealing CBK price for shareholders.

Second, capital: the capital burden for UCG of owning a partial control stake appears less Market Cap (EUR mn) 39667

attractive than a bump (and its associated incremental share count) allowing it to move Shares Outstanding (mn) 1080.85

decisively higher in ownership. Third, ownership dynamics: with UCG already holding c40%+ (if Free Float (%) 58.81

ultimately converting the TRS) and passive/retail shareholders key in the process, a bumped 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 3.6

offer could be a decisive lever. More broadly, while strategic disagreements exist between UCG Dividend Yield (%) 2.99

and CBK, we believe convergence can be reached over time. UCG's plan to initially operate CBK Return on Equity TTM (%) 8.10

as a standalone entity for c18 months could facilitate gradual alignment on the strategy. Current BVPS (EUR) 28.29

Source: Bloomberg