BANKS : Keeping calm and carrying on

Research evidence excerpt

BANKS : Keeping calm and carrying on

EQUITIES

BANKS

Keeping calm and carrying on

The quarter pounder - Solid numbers, with some standout performers15 MAY 2026

Sector Research Report That’s a wrap on Q1 results, with a 2% top line aggregate beat supporting a mid-single digit PBT

Production time: 05:15* (London time) beat. A solid performance but volatile items played a role, plus the market entered results season

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities hopeful for NII upgrades given rate movements. Alongside softer capital and evidence of sector

Guy Stebbings, CFA rotation, this wasn’t enough to lift the sector higher through results. This said, the Dutch banks,

BNP Paribas London Branch STAN, UCG and UBS all stood out, with strong revenue performance well received by the market.(+44) 203 430 8618

guy.stebbings@uk.bnpparibas.com

Impairments under the spotlight

Aditi Vittal Elevated uncertainty emanating from the Middle East conflict put a spotlight on bank provisioning.

BNP Paribas London Branch

(+44) 7345 461 899 Unsurprisingly, there was very little to call out on ‘underlying’ impairment trends in Q1 itself. But there

aditi.vittal@uk.bnpparibas.com was some divergence on ‘pro-active’ provisioning, with just under half of the sector updating overlays

or macro assumptions for the conflict – but movements here were modest and the messaging largely

encouraging. Disclosure continues to improve on private markets exposure, aiding investor

understanding on this segment, but there were some unhelpful headlines in Q1 (e.g. HSBC).

Rates a source of upside?

Our aggregate estimates are not overly divergent to consensus. But clearly it is a fluid rate picture,

with the market now pricing c3 policy hikes (EUR, £) which is seemingly not reflected in consensus