Commerzbank (AO) | Buy | Control and consolidation by UCG?

Research evidence excerpt

Commerzbank (AO) | Buy | Control and consolidation by UCG?

News comment

Release date: 24 June 2026

Tobias Lukesch, CIIA

Equity Research Analyst

+49 69 7569 6217

tlukesch@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyCommerzbank

Germany | Banks & Asset Managers Beta Profile: MCap: EUR41.5bn Country Top Picks

Target Price: EUR45.00 Bloomberg: CBK GR Reuters: CBKG.DE

Current Price: EUR37.88 Free float 88.0%

Up/downside: 18.8% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 273.0

YTD abs performance 4.9% Market data: 23 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 38.38/26.70

Control and consolidation by UCG?

Key points:

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that UCG CEO Andrea Orcel said at a conference that it was "a lot more probable” that UCG ends

up with what the ECB would call control than not.

We believe that shows the intention by UCG to consolidate the CBK stake, although it might be costly in terms of capital (280-

300bps CET1 ratio) and alter the payout route for UCG shareholders. In a consolidated setup, adding further CBK shares would

then bring relief to the UCG capital ratios, which makes the further hunt for CBK shares even more attractive.

We believe this is a positive for CBK shareholders as it continues to drive demand for CBK shares, which are currently trading at a

c. 1% discount to the offer.

Orcel talks at conference - the take on Commerzbank

Mediobanca hosted a fire-side chat yesterday with Andrea Orcel. Orcel struck a notably confident tone on Commerzbank. He

described the combination as one of Europe’s most compelling banking deals. UniCredit is stronger in mid-to-large corporates

and mass-affluent/private banking, while Commerzbank is stronger in smaller corporates and micro-businesses.

In his view, the combined group could address Germany’s fragmented market, weak customer satisfaction and intensifying