Commerzbank (1K) | Buy | Attractive upside

Research evidence excerpt

Commerzbank (1K) | Buy | Attractive upside

#EstimatesRevision #HighConviction #Actionable

Release date: 28 May 2026

Company research

ESG profile BuyCommerzbank

Germany | Banks & Asset Managers Beta Profile: MCap: EUR40.2bn Country Top Picks

Target Price: EUR45.00 (44.00) Change in TP: 2.3 % Bloomberg: CBK GR Reuters: CBKG.DE

Current Price: EUR36.70 Change in Revenues: 0.5% 26E/2.3% 27E Free float 88.0%

Up/downside: 22.6% Change in Rep PBT: 2.5% 26E/-0.1% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 261.8

YTD abs performance 1.7% Market data: 27 May 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 2.5% 26E/4.7% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 37.89/26.54

Attractive upside Price performance

Why this report?

This report follows Commerzbank’s strong Q1 results and the introduction of

updated medium-term targets for 2028-30, which management presented as

both ambitious and achievable. The note reassesses the earnings trajectory,

capital distribution outlook and valuation framework after incorporating the

new guidance into forecasts. It also evaluates key takeaways from the Q1

earnings call, where management emphasised prudent assumptions and

disciplined execution, while additionally considering the competitive

implications of JPMorgan’s launch of the Chase retail franchise in Germany.

Key findings

The central conclusion is that Commerzbank is well positioned to broadly deliver

on its new 2028 targets. Forecasts remain close to company guidance, with

operating profit expected to grow by 18%, 13% and 11% over 2026-28E. The FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Total revenues 13,287 14,355 15,287

outlook is supported by continued revenue momentum, improving efficiency and Pre-prov. profit 6,282 7,280 8,143

strong capital generation. Pre-tax profit 5,464 6,013 7,326

A major investment highlight remains capital returns.