Orlen SA: 1Q26 First Take + Off The Call

Research evidence excerpt

Orlen SA: 1Q26 First Take + Off The Call

Update

May 28, 2026 08:05 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MOrlen SA | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

1Q26 First Take + Off The Call Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.comSylvia C Richards +44 20 7677-9886

Research Associate

Sylvia.Richards@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3354

Reaction to earnings Giulia Faro

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Giulia.Faro@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7581

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Orlen SA (PKN.WA, PKN PW)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

EEMEA - Oil & Gas | Poland

Stock Rating Underweight

Key Takeaways Industry View No Rating

Shr price, close (May 27, 2026) PLN 138.68

Solid 1Q26 results beat Visible Alpha consensus by +4% for adj. EBITDA LIFO and Price target PLN 99.00

52-Week Range PLN 146.98- 71.25

+34% for net income. Mkt cap, curr (mn) PLN 160,999

EBITDA strength was mainly supported by the refining and upstream segment

given current elevated crack spreads and energy prices.

The +34% beat to bottom-line consensus estimates was also driven by lower

financial results: -174mn PLN vs MSe -703mn PLN.

The petrochemicals segment continues to weigh on overall performance despite

positive macro tailwinds, whilst energy was a positive contributor.

Guidance for the rest of the year remains unchanged, though Q2 utilisation rates

are expected to be lower following turnarounds.

Bottom-line: neutral. Orlen posted a healthy set of results for 1Q26, with adj.

EBITDA LIFO and net income beating Visible Alpha consensus by +4%/+34%. Strong

performance this quarter was concentrated in refining and upstream, with adj.

EBITDA for both +44%/+50% ahead of our estimates on higher crack spreads and