Orlen SA "Positive revision despite tax pressure - 1Q26 review" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Orlen SA "Positive revision despite tax pressure - 1Q26 review" (Neutral)

e several idiosyncratic 2H26 catalysts. On Anna Kishmariya

the conference call, management said the strategy update is planned for late 2026, but Analyst

anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

could slip depending on macro conditions. The group does not expect material changes

+44-20-7568 7999

to investment plans despite organic capex underspending versus plan in FY24 (PLN6bn

on an accrual basis) and FY25 (PLN3bn), and aims to maintain flexibility around M&A. Henri Patricot, CFA

AnalystThe main changes are likely to be revised macro assumptions. Despite a stronger

henri.patricot@ubs.com

petchem backdrop, Orlen still expects to impair all capex spent this year on the New

+33-14-888 3033

Chemistry project (c.PLN6bn). Beyond the strategy update, the closing of the Azoty

Polyols acquisition is expected in 3Q (PLN1.4bn, pending approvals, see our take) and a Joshua Stone

Analystlikely late-June/July government revision to gas tariffs for protected customers. We

joshua.stone@ubs.com

expect that revision to be downward, despite the stronger current backdrop (already +44-20-7901 5588

embedded in UBSe).

Valuation: Reiterate Neutral rating, increase our PT to PLN123 from PLN120

We use 5.0x 12M forward EV/DACF multiple at normalised Brent. At our PT, the group

would trade at 6% 12M dividend yield.

Highlights (PLNm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Net earnings (UBS) 24,721 2,466 11,110 21,679 15,282 12,485 9,983 10,271

EPS (UBS, diluted) (PLN) 21.29 2.12 9.57 18.67 13.16 10.75 8.60 8.85

CEPS (UBS, diluted) (PLN) 29.17 25.33 38.75 30.46 25.91 23.99 22.62 23.35

DACF (UBS) 43,046 29,263 44,784 34,532 28,436 26,009 24,413 25,069

DPS (net) (PLN) 4.15 6.00 8.00 8.46 6.57 5.29 5.65 5.84