HP Inc.: F2Q26 Earnings – Bending, but Not Yet Breaking

Research evidence excerpt

HP Inc.: F2Q26 Earnings – Bending, but Not Yet Breaking

d with implied volatility data from the options market as of 27

May 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $30.00 BASE CASE $19.00 BEAR CASE $14.00

9x Bull Case FY27e EPS of $3.35 7x FY27e EPS of $2.65 6x Bear Case FY27e EPS of $2.26

Revenue grows HSD Y/Y in FY26-FY27 and Weak ent hardware demand, tough Y/Y PC Memory headwinds are more severe

margins surprise positively. PC refresh comps & memory headwinds pressures resulting in significant demand destruction

persists through FY26 and into FY27 and HP growth/margins. PC shipments decline 4% and margin compression. The memory

continues to gain market share. The pivot to Y/Y in FY26 and 7% Y/Y in FY27 as Win '11 supercycle is stronger for longer and HPQ is

HP+ proves fruitful early on, keeping refresh slows & memory induced higher only able to offset 1/3 of the impact from

printing margins above the upper end of 16- prices cannibalize demand, partially offset higher prices (vs. 2/3 in our base case),

19% LT target range for the year. HPQ is able by stronger ASPs, resulting in 9% Y/Y PS which results in demand elasticity such that

to more than offset higher input costs via revenue growth in FY26 and 2% Y/Y revenue declines MSD-HSD Y/Y and margins

pricing actions and supplier negotiations declines in FY27. Total rev is up 6% Y/Y compress 600bps+ Y/Y in FY27. HP trades

such that PC margins are flat Y/Y. Shares while EPS declines 6% Y/Y in FY26 as higher to 6x P/E, which on bear case FY26 EPS of

trade to 9x P/E, reflecting solid execution. commodity costs weigh on profitability.