Ambev "4 Takeaways From Brazil’s Annual Beer Report" (Sell) Alcantara

Research evidence excerpt

Ambev "4 Takeaways From Brazil’s Annual Beer Report" (Sell) Alcantara

Global Research

26 May 2026ab

Ambev Equities

Brazil4 Takeaways From Brazil’s Annual Beer Report

Distillers & Brewers

12-month rating Sell

Insights from Annual Beer Production in Brazil

The Ministry of Agriculture of Brazil published last week its annual beer industry 12m price target R$15.50

report, providing a comprehensive overview of Brazil’s beer sector and official

production data for 2025. The report suggests that, despite softer industry volumes

Price (26 May 2026) R$16.59

(-8.9% y/y), premiumization trends remain in place, with pure malt beer reaching

29.2% penetration, while sub-categories such as gluten-free continue to expand RIC: ABEV3.SA BBG: ABEV3 BZ

(2.4% of total, +420% y/y). Below, we summarize the main takeaways from the

Trading data and key metrics

report, alongside supporting data from Nielsen and Euromonitor, to contextualize

52-wk range R$16.95-11.71

broader category trends and recent product launches by Ambev, Heineken, and

Petrópolis. Market cap. R$259b/US$51.4b

Shares o/s 15,610m (ORD)

Softer volume backdrop: Total beer production declined by 8.9% in 2025, Free float 29%

falling from 172.2 to 156.8 million hectoliters, implying per-capita Avg. daily volume ('000) 27,063

consumption of 74L. This compares with IBGE’s alcoholic beverage production Avg. daily value (m) R$420.9

data (-4.7% y/y in 2025), which we believe is broadly consistent with weaker

Common s/h equity (12/26E) R$85.0b

beer volume trends reported by Ambev, Heineken, and Petrópolis (-4.5%, -

P/BV (12/26E) 3.0x

5.0%, -8.9%, respectively). Nielsen sell-out data also points in the same

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM

direction (-5.0% y/y), reinforcing the view of a softer demand backdrop across

the category.