Ambev "2Q In Sight: A Strong Quarter Is Expected—But by How Much?" (Sell)

Research evidence excerpt

Ambev "2Q In Sight: A Strong Quarter Is Expected—But by How Much?" (Sell)

growth of +8.5%. Our EPS forecast, revised down by -3% versus our 12/28E 1.18 1.17 -1 1.16

previous estimate, still points to +13.4% growth, underpinned by a lower effective

tax rate versus a year ago. Rodrigo Alcantara

Analyst

Forecast Brazil Beer Volumes Up +6.8% in 2Q26 rodrigo.alcantara@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6324

Our conversations with Ambev and our channel checks point to marginally better, if

any, weather and macroeconomic conditions than those prevailing a year ago, Kevin Zavala

Associate Analystsuggesting that most of the volume upside should come from continued market

kevin.zavala@ubs.com

share gains versus Heineken and Grupo Petrópolis, as indicated by Nielsen's tracked +55-11-2767 6176

channels, together with the ongoing world cup. Against this backdrop, we maintain

our Brazil beer volume growth forecast of +6.8%. Our discussions with local Sanjeet Aujla

investors suggest we remain at the lower end of market expectations, with

sanjeet.aujla@ubs.com

consensus seemingly centered closer to +8% and bullish views approaching +10%. +44-20-7567 4529

On price/mix, our +5.3% forecast (excluding Marketplace) is supported by

approximately +4.4% beer inflation and a favorable mix contribution. With cash

COGS expected to decelerate materially versus 1Q26, albeit partly offset by higher

marketing and G&A expenses, we project Brazil beer EBITDA growth of +17.4%.

Highlights (R$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 79,737 89,453 88,243 91,529 95,511 100,764 104,964 109,687

EBIT (UBS) 18,831 21,801 23,317 24,718 26,089 27,540 28,778 30,157

Net earnings (UBS) 14,502 14,437 15,503 15,719 17,454 18,250 18,434 19,287

EPS (UBS, diluted) (R$) 0.92 0.92 0.99 1.01 1.12 1.17 1.18 1.24