Beer industry model: Updating our estimates by brewer - STZ and ABI positioned t

Research evidence excerpt

Beer industry model: Updating our estimates by brewer - STZ and ABI positioned t

July 20, 2026

2) While we estimate that ABI could see volumes continue to decline ~1-1.5% annually, this does

represent share gains of ~25 bps p.a. When combined with 1-2% pricing, our estimates suggest

strong potential for flat to higher sales. Moreover, positive mix suggests the potential for gross

profits to grow faster than sales. Importantly, these figures exclude ABI’s highly accretive

beyond beer business, which now accounts for M-HSD% of U.S. sales and enjoy 30-40% higher

profits per unit. ABI’s U.S. business has stronger momentum now than at any point in recent history;

however, the company may see a slight downturn in FY27 vs. FY26 as it laps America 250, the World

Cup, and the strong performance from Busch Light Apple. Management attributes its recent success in

the U.S. to 10+ years of consistent investment through various ups and downs. Clear examples of that

paying off include the impressive success of Michelob Ultra and Cutwater, both of which we believe are

nicely profit accretive, especially Cutwater, which we believe is now having a meaningful impact on ABI

and its distributors’ P&L. Michelob Ultra is now the largest beer brand by volume in the U.S. and is such

an important traffic driver for retailers that the lower price realization for the brand picked up in scanner

reflects retailer investment, not discounting from ABI, according to industry sources. As noted above,

RTDs now make up ~M-HSD% of ABI’s U.S. portfolio and exemplify the portfolio transformation toward

more premium, higher growth brands. ABI's NA portfolio is growing 27% globally, led by Michelob Ultra

Zero and Corona Cero, and are ~20% more profitable than the traditional brands, with ~65%

incrementality.