Normalized Weather & Tariff Refunds In 2H To Support Comps + Protect GM%

Research evidence excerpt

Normalized Weather & Tariff Refunds In 2H To Support Comps + Protect GM%

USA | Hardlines

Home Depot EquityMayResearch19, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGENormalized Weather & Tariff Refunds In 2H To

RATING BUYSupport Comps + Protect GM%

PRICE $299.81^

While weather weighed on comps in the final weeks of April, May trends point to

a more supportive backdrop in 2Q. Pro complex project activity remains strong, PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $361.00 ($454.00) | +20%

and a return to normalized storm activity in the back half should support a FY 52W HIGH-LOW $426.75 - $296.88

comp path higher than 1Q comp levels. More broadly, we expect HD to continue FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.9% | 1,283.19

taking share and scaling cross-sell opportunities across its Pro verticals, even MARKET CAP $298.6B

against a muted housing turnover picture. Reiterate BUY. TICKER HD ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Weather and FX Offsetting Each Other in 1Q. While comps landed below where the Street was

positioned heading into the print, results remained in-line with management's sub-1% expectation.

FY (Jan) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

Parsing the puts and takes, a ~55 bps FX tailwind appeared to largely offset a weather headwind

2027 2028 2027 2028

in the final weeks of the quarter.

REV NM NM NM NM

Storms to Drive 2H Demand. Management's flat to +2% FY guide looks achievable, but the path EPS NM NM NM NM

to the upper end runs through the back half. We see a normalized storm cadence (vs. lackluster

activity last year) as the key lever, particularly as a return to a normal storm year could compound 2027 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

with the recent strength in complex project activity. EPS 3.43 4.80 3.94 2.85 15.03

PREV 3.40 4.73 3.99 2.98 15.10

QTD Likely Tracking Positive, Peak Weeks Ahead.